Covid-19 Might Spread To Human Since October, One Month Earlier Than Chinese Reports

On May 6^th, a journal named Infection, Genetics and Evolution has informed the latest studies of a scientist group in London in which they found that Covid-19 could start spreading to humans from 6/10 to 11/12 last year.

They have analyzed over 7,500 genetic samples of coronavirus collected from infectious patients since January. These scientists focus on tracking the evolution of this deadly virus and discover that the first human contractions were from October to December in 2019.

Earlier, Chinese scientists reported that the zero patient in this country was contracted with Covid-19 on 17 November, 2019. Researchers in China also agreed that the novel coronavirus probably spread from a bat to human in November.

Compared to Chinese research, studies from London scientist groups have accessed to more data from all over the world, giving more reliable estimation about the root of the pandemic. Evidence in France also indicates that a patient in this country was infected in 27/12/2019, one month earlier than the time this country discovered the first positive case.

So, what can we infer from the conclusion of this latest study?

The first possibility is Chinese government failed to discover the zero patient, thereby responding late to stop the spread of this coronavirus.

In fact, when the first doctor warned people about this nCoV, Chinese authorities asked him to delete all posts, messages related and even fined him for spreading fake news. He died of coronavirus later.

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Another scenario is China might not be the first place to record coronavirus contraction. All infected countries bear the same possibility of having the world zero patients but no one could identify it timely. Many nations in the world have found that their citizens were infected in December, 2019 but it’s not until this year when they confirmed the first positive case, like France.

However, this second theory is not much convincing considering the coronavirus curve in all countries.

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Besides this information, studies also found 198 mutations in coronavirus genomes but none of them signals different strains. This contradicts to previous study by Chinese scientists who claimed that there were more strains of coronavirus and one seem to be more “aggressive” than others.

This shows that Covid-19 is evolving itself to adapt to its host but does not develop more dangerous. Actually, it’s already dangerous now.

Updated on May 8^th, there are more than 3,920,000 confirmed cases in the world. 271,239 people died and over 1,300,000 recovered. In India, nearly 60,000 people have been infected while above 2000 deaths have been recorded.

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