Oscars 2026: Who Deserves to Win and Who Probably Will

The nominees for this year's Oscars, honoring the best films released in 2025, were announced back in January, setting the stage for a tight race in several categories. With powerhouses like "Sinners" leading with 16 nominations and "One Battle After Another" close behind at 13, the competition is fierce. Below, I break down the major categories, sharing my take on who should win based on artistic merit, innovation, and impact, and who probably will win according to industry buzz, precursor awards, and expert predictions. This is all speculative, of course - tune in to ABC or Hulu at 7 p.m. ET/4 p.m. PT to see the real outcomes.

Best Picture

The nominees are: "Bugonia," "F1," "Frankenstein," "Hamnet," "Marty Supreme," "One Battle After Another," "The Secret Agent," "Sentimental Value," "Sinners," and "Train Dreams."

Who should win: "Sinners." Ryan Coogler's genre-blending horror epic masterfully weaves Black music history into a sweeping narrative, delivering profound cultural commentary and technical brilliance that stands out in a strong field.

Who probably will win: "One Battle After Another." Paul Thomas Anderson's darkly comedic thriller has been neck-and-neck with "Sinners" all season, buoyed by its critical acclaim and Anderson's overdue recognition from the Academy.

Best Director

The nominees are: Chloé Zhao ("Hamnet"), Josh Safdie ("Marty Supreme"), Paul Thomas Anderson ("One Battle After Another"), Joachim Trier ("Sentimental Value"), and Ryan Coogler ("Sinners").

Who should win: Ryan Coogler for "Sinners." His visionary direction packs decades of history into innovative sequences, making it a landmark in American cinema.

Who probably will win: Paul Thomas Anderson for "One Battle After Another." With 14 career nominations and no wins yet, the Academy might finally honor this master filmmaker in a razor-thin race.

Best Actor

The nominees are: Timothée Chalamet ("Marty Supreme"), Leonardo DiCaprio ("One Battle After Another"), Ethan Hawke ("Blue Moon"), Michael B. Jordan ("Sinners"), and Wagner Moura ("The Secret Agent").

Who should win: Michael B. Jordan in "Sinners." His layered performance captures vulnerability and strength, anchoring the film's emotional core with raw intensity.

Who probably will win: Timothée Chalamet in "Marty Supreme." The buzz around his transformative role, combined with wins at key precursors, edges him ahead in a close contest.

Best Actress

The nominees are: Jessie Buckley ("Hamnet"), Rose Byrne ("If I Had Legs I'd Kick You"), Kate Hudson ("Song Sung Blue"), Renate Reinsve ("Sentimental Value"), and Emma Stone ("Bugonia").

Who should win: Jessie Buckley in "Hamnet." Her nuanced portrayal of grief and resilience elevates the historical drama to poignant heights.

Who probably will win: Emma Stone in "Bugonia." As a recent Oscar winner with strong precursor support, she's the frontrunner in this category.

Best Supporting Actor

The nominees are: Benicio Del Toro ("One Battle After Another"), Jacob El ordi ("Frankenstein"), Delroy Lindo ("Sinners"), Sean Penn ("One Battle After Another"), and Stellan Skarsgård ("Sentimental Value").

Who should win: Delroy Lindo in "Sinners." His commanding presence and subtle depth make him the standout in a film full of strong performances.

Who probably will win: Sean Penn in "One Battle After Another." With back-to-back wins at BAFTAs and SAG, plus his history as a two-time Oscar winner, he's the safe bet.

Best Supporting Actress

The nominees are: Elle Fanning ("Sentimental Value"), Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas ("Sentimental Value"), Amy Madigan ("Weapons"), Wunmi Mosaku ("Sinners"), and Teyana Taylor ("One Battle After Another").

Who should win: Teyana Taylor in "One Battle After Another." Her fierce, authentic turn adds emotional firepower to the ensemble.

Who probably will win: Amy Madigan in "Weapons." Veteran status and critical raves position her as the likely victor in a wide-open race.

No matter the results, 2025 was a stellar year for cinema. What are your picks? Share in the comments as we gear up for the big night!